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How to Navigate the Shifting Real Estate Market

Josh Dawson

My goal is simple: to help you make better real estate decisions...

My goal is simple: to help you make better real estate decisions...

Jul 5 4 minutes read

My goal in my real estate practice is simple - to help people make better real estate decisions. 

While nobody can predict with certainty what's going to happen in the future with real estate and mortgage rates, we can seek expert advice to help us make the best decisions for our own situation.

In this post, I will strive to answer the most common questions I'm hearing regarding the current real estate market. 

They are:

1) What's up with interest rates and inflation;

2) If the economy slows down, how will that affect the real estate market;

3) What is going to happen in the second half of 2022; and

4) Should you buy a home right now?

What's up with interest rates? 

Largest one-week Increase Since 1987

Mortgage Rates nearly doubled from their lows early in the year. 

Why this Happened


Inflation is the Enemy of Mortgage Rates

How Does an Economic Slowdown Affect Real Estate?

Are we in a Recession?


Are Higher Rates Here to Stay?


Interest Rates Eventually Drop


Real Estate Prices & Recessions


How About the Rest of 2022?

Inflation Over 2022


Showings back to Pre-Pandemic Demand

Rising rates will likely keep some out of the market and bring overall home showings back to pre-pandemic demand. However, that was still a seller's market, so buyers should not expect to be without competition on homes that are well priced, show well, and are in good condition. 

More Homes on the Market?

This updated forecast from Realtor.com is good news for buyers, but I have yet to see data that reflect this trend developing in Central Ohio. In fact, I'm seeing shrinking inventory (not more), but I'm monitoring it.

Should You Buy a Home Now?


Current Headlines

They tend to terrify, not clarify.

Reality

Home prices were driving 75 miles per hour for the last two years. Now they're in a speed zone that looks more like 45 miles per hour. 

2022 Pricing Trends

Expert predictions are averaging 8.5% price appreciation over 2022. Here in Central Ohio, we've already seen 12.96% appreciation through June, already outpacing national averages.

Five Year Predictions

Staying on the sidelines in the hopes that prices will depreciate does not look like a winning gameplan.

Supply & Demand

What is usually boils down to...

We Didn't Build Enough

Coupled with the record number of millennials entering peak homebuying years, years of underbuilding is why the market will still see supply-side issues for years. 

In sum, no one can predict the future with mortgage rates, but you can still get expert advice. An economic slowdown would likely bring down mortgage rates, lowering the cost to finance. Demand and sales are heading back to pre-pandemic levels. Experts project 9% appreciation this year and more normal appreciation in the future.

If you need a trusted guide to help you make good real estate decisions in this market, then...

Let's Talk →
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