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    The Housing Market Is Split. Here’s Why.

    The real estate market continues to make national headlines, but what happens when your experience doesn’t seem to match...

    • Josh Dawson
    • November 2nd, 2023
    • 4 min read

    The real estate market continues to make national headlines, but what happens when your experience doesn’t seem to match up with what you’re hearing in the news? If you’ve been experiencing any confusion about the real estate market in the last year, you’re not alone. It’s because the U.S. is in what’s called a bifurcated market, or a split market. Check it out.

    What is a bifurcated market?

    In the context of real estate, a bifurcated market refers to a situation where the housing market is divided into two distinct segments, each behaving differently in terms of pricing, supply and demand, and activity. While one segment may be experiencing rapid price growth and high demand, the other may be slower, with more stable or even declining prices. 

    How did we get here?

    Beginning in 2020, markets across the country saw home prices rising faster than they did during the housing bubble of 2005 to 2007. This was due in part to record-low interest rates making mortgages more affordable everywhere—but the home price jump wasn’t distributed evenly across the nation. In some markets, such as Raleigh, Las Vegas, and Austin, home values spiked more than 30%, while in others, like some parts of New York and the Midwest, prices rose modestly or didn’t rise at all.

    The accelerated price growth of some markets over others has to do with the rapid increase in demand. Many people purchased new homes during COVID-19, fulfilling changing needs, locking in an ultra-low interest rate, and—most importantly—relocating. Many people took advantage of remote work to relocate from an expensive area to a city where they could afford to buy, while others relocated to change jobs or be near family. This led to an exodus from expensive urban centers and caused demand and prices to spike in places previously thought of as affordable.

    The battle between mortgage rates and inflation

    In 2022, the economy was moving at such a fast pace that inflation rose to a 40-year high of over 9%. To put downward pressure on inflation and prevent a crash, the Fed started increasing interest rates—which meant that mortgage rates rose. From their low of 2.65% in January of 2021, mortgage rates rose to over 7%. Coupled with high prices, these rates have made homeownership unaffordable for many.

    It makes sense that high rates and high prices would reduce demand and cause home prices to fall—right? Well, kind of. This is where the market starts to split.

    The question of supply and demand

    It’s true that when demand drops, prices typically drop as well—but you have to factor supply into the equation. While demand is dropping, many markets are seeing a reduction in available inventory as well, because homeowners who have mortgage rates between 2 and 3% don’t want to sell their homes. The split in the national market happens when a region’s pullback in demand is matched by a reduction in supply, allowing prices to stabilize or even continue to grow—while in other regions, demand drops and supply remains the same, causing prices to fall.

    Where is this happening? In what some are calling a correction of COVID-19’s outrageous price jumps, most of the drops are happening in markets where prices saw extreme growth from 2020 to 2022. Conversely, markets that were more stable during the pandemic seem to be more stable now as well, showing steady prices and modest growth.

     

    Your market

    Curious where your local Central Ohio market falls on this split and what it means for you?

    Get in touch, and I’ll tell you everything you need to know.

    Let's Go

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    About the author

    Josh Dawson

    614.706.6288
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    Buying or selling real estate is more than a transaction—it’s a major life decision. You deserve a guide who brings not just experience, but clarity, strategy, and trust to the table. That’s where I come in. I was born and raised in Fostoria, Ohio—a blue-collar factory town where your word meant everything and people treated each other with respect. I come from a family of military veterans, tradesmen, and kind-hearted Midwesterners who taught me to do good, be good, and work hard. I carried those values with me to Ohio Wesleyan University, where I played football and graduated with the same commitment to perseverance and teamwork I bring to every client relationship today. My real estate career began not in Central Ohio, but as part of a Wall Street Journal Top 100 Team in Boston—one of the fastest-moving, most competitive markets in the country. Before real estate, I served in senior political roles, including State Director for the Massachusetts State Treasurer and Legislative Director in the State Senate. I even ran for State Representative and earned an endorsement from The Boston Globe—because I’ve always been driven to serve people, solve complex problems, and lead with integrity. Today, I bring those same values into my work as a real estate professional and former managing broker. I’ve led agents, negotiated complicated transactions, and taught hundreds of professionals how to master real estate contracts. I don’t just understand the fine print—I’ve taught from it. That insight often helps me make small but strategic contract adjustments that protect my clients or save them tens of thousands of dollars. I currently serve on the Columbus Realtors Broker Advisory Committee and am the Past-President of the Greater Dublin Realty Association, where I continue to advocate for professionalism, education, and client-first service across our industry. Clients know me for my steady communication and proactive approach. I hold weekly check-ins to ensure no one ever wonders, “What’s happening?” or “What’s next?” Whether I’m guiding a family through an emotional sale or helping a first-time buyer make a strong start, I act with clarity, empathy, and your long-term goals in mind. When I’m not working, you’ll often find me coaching my daughter’s softball team, spending time with my family, or fishing and boating in Port Clinton, where my parents now live. I live in Dublin with my amazing wife and our two beautiful daughters—and I consider it an honor to serve families across Central Ohio with focus, care, and professionalism. If you're ready to move forward with purpose, I’m here to help you do it wisely.

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